The head of ECRI announced today that the U.S. economy is guaranteed to be entering a new recession. (Video below the fold.)
Who is ECRI? They're a little different than the usual economists - they are independent (don't work for any big banks or institutions) but advise a lot of institutions, they are unemotional in their calls, and they use data on many variables - everything from consumer spending to industrial production to money supply. Their track record is actually pretty amazing. They've never mistakenly predicted a recession in the several decades they've been around as an economic research group.
What might have told us that we were entering a recession earlier? Let's look at that.